Is the Texas Data Center Queue a Bubble? Expert Explains the Numbers
The video examines whether Texas’ reported 400-plus-gigawatt large-load and data center interconnection queue is realistic. Dr. Joshua Rhodes explains that many requests are speculative or unsigned, while the state’s power generation, transmission infrastructure and supply chains cannot expand quickly enough to support the headline forecast by 2030.
Dr. Joshua Rhodes discusses the rapid growth of Texas electricity-demand forecasts, which have risen from roughly 150 gigawatts to figures approaching 400 gigawatts or more, driven in part by data centers and artificial-intelligence workloads. He says the largest projections are not realistic because meeting them would require an unprecedented buildout of power plants, transmission lines, transformers and other equipment within a few years.
Rhodes attributes the size of the queue partly to a process created or expanded through Texas legislation, including HB 566, which requires ERCOT to account for unsigned large-load requests in its planning studies. The surge in AI-related proposals overwhelmed the former ad hoc interconnection process, prompting ERCOT to centralize requests through a batch process and require applicants to commit more resources earlier. Based on historical generator interconnection data, Rhodes estimates that only about 20% to 30% of queued projects ultimately proceed, meaning the real demand could be far below the headline figure while still representing substantial growth for the Texas grid.