New Study Flags 2030 Reliability Risks for PJM
A new study commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission warns that surging data center demand could lead to power shortages in the PJM Interconnection by 2030. The study indicates a significant increase in reliability risk, prompting PJM to pursue measures to increase supply and manage new loads. Pennsylvania regulators are also examining how data centers should be treated during emergency curtailments and how associated costs should be allocated across the 13-state region.
A new study, commissioned by the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission, warns of significant electricity reliability risks for the PJM Interconnection by 2030, primarily driven by rapid data center development. The study's reference case, utilizing PJM's 2026 load forecast, projects that the risk of power shortages could be almost six times higher than PJM's established planning target.
PJM has acknowledged that electricity demand is outpacing the growth of new generation and is actively exploring measures to boost supply and more effectively manage large new loads. Ongoing efforts include reforms to PJM's generation interconnection process, potential new reliability procurement strategies, and enhancements in load forecasting methodologies. The study suggests that only a scenario assuming no additional data center load would allow PJM to maintain its current reliability criterion.
Separately, Pennsylvania regulators are investigating how data centers should be handled during emergency curtailments and the allocation of costs associated with serving these substantial new loads. The findings of this study have broad implications across PJM's 13-state service area, which includes Maryland, as both reliability challenges and the expenses for new generation and transmission can extend beyond individual data center locations.