Data center electricity use on the rise
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a significant increase in electricity consumption by data center servers across the commercial building stock, with standalone data centers showing the highest growth. Server consumption alone is expected to reach between 446 billion and 818 billion kilowatthours by 2050. This surge is also driving a substantial rise in the commercial sector's electricity intensity, primarily due to the energy demands for server operation and associated cooling systems.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2026 (AEO2026) projects a substantial increase in electricity consumed by data center servers within the commercial building sector. According to the outlook, server consumption is anticipated to reach between 446 billion and 818 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) by 2050, with standalone data centers accounting for the majority of this growth.
EIA's analysis indicates that data center servers, along with their crucial cooling and ventilation systems, are a primary factor in the projected rise of the commercial sector's electricity intensity. The agency noted that electricity intensity, measured in kWh per square foot, is expected to surpass the 2003 historical high by 2031–2032. Servers alone are estimated to contribute 7% of commercial sector electricity consumption in 2025, growing to 22%–33% by 2050 in various scenarios.
The AEO2026 model now reports data center server electricity use separately, assuming a consistent, flat demand for electricity throughout the day. While the Counterfactual Baseline case assumes a 10% reduction in average annual operational power draw every three years after 2040 due to increasing server efficiency, overall consumption growth is still driven by the continued installation of new servers. In the High Electricity Demand case, no such efficiency improvement is assumed, and AI servers are projected to account for a larger share of the installed server stock over time, further escalating demand.